Tricky decisions that I have to make, like should I get some sleep today or should I stay awake?

Audio bullies – Flickery Vision

Liberal Youth, an interesting beast – still hasn’t evolved past the base equation of too much alcohol versus so much alcohol that basic judgement breaks down and relationships are instantly broken down and destroyed – pity. I am blogging live from Activate – our training weekend – at 6.30am in the morning. I’m not up early, more up late.

Liberal Youth is probably the primary reason why I don’t get enough sleep. Its been good so far, an excellent mix of new peeps, and older hands and some excellent training thus far, but we’re only a third of the way through so I’m sure we’ll see. Look out for my new blog which I will be launching soonish as an executive blog – hopefully I’ll update that much more often than I do this one, which will revert to a blog I more occasionally refer to as a personal one. I’m hoping that along with the new website that the new blog will be a useful link between the members one of their executive members, still it’ll probably just be an ego trip, same as ever.

Anyway, I think I’ve decided to stay up today, flickery visions of drunk liberal youthers tomorrow however may wish I had thought again I’m sure…

And you’re under control
Then you do what they told ya
And you’re under control
Then you do what they told ya
Uh…
Killing in the name of…

Rage against the machine

Thursday 4th June 2009. Today 500 million people will be going to the polls in the largest cross border democratic election in Human history. Europhile or Eurosceptic, it doesn’t matter. In Europe the ideological conflict which raged throughout Europe, and the world for a 100 years; the fight between Imperialism and Fascism, Communism and Democracy, was fought and won by the Liberal Democratic Tradition, by believers in human rights, universal suffrage, equality between races and sexes, freedom of speech, of movement and of belief.

That fight was won in 1989. The year the wall, Communism’s last defence in Europe, came crashing down.

Thursday 4th June 1989. 1 Billion people are in open revolt as the largest, and longest single sustained pro democracy demonstrations in all history, spanning 80 cities, is brutally put down. A solitary, unknown student, blocks a column of tanks in an iconic photo which almost certainly outlived them, and in all likelihood, will out live us all. Hundreds on one square are slaughtered, thousands more nationwide are killed, imprisoned and exiled. China is never the same again, its people have ever since lived in fear. Those who believe in intolerance, surveillance, the politics of fear, the suppression of dissent, of religion, of movement are the winners here; feudal masters of a people beaten into submission.

In my life, over 23 years, I have seen the defeat of those values and the development of a continent reconciled. I am privileged to belong to the first generation to have grown up in a Europe which has healed its false divisions. A Europe where I can, without fear, travel to Warsaw, or to Stockholm, or to Kiev. Where I can work without restriction in the Netherlands, France or Romania. Where I can love without prejudice a German girl, or a Spanish girl, or for that matter an Italian man.

I am privileged because my generation can break bread and drink wine with friends in Europe and not drop bombs and cower in fear borne of ethnic hatred; the generations that made it through those days of terror allow mine to afford the luxury to dream of a better world.

That’s why it is the responsibility of every Man and Woman of my age group to vote tomorrow. It is your responsibility to stand up for a better way of coexistence with those we may judge to be different, to give hope and succour to those who live in democracies with aggressive authoritarian neighbours. The tag line of my blog, uttered by an aged Chinese government minister before the massacre, explains why it cannot be left to an older generation without those ideals to fight for that better way of life alone: ‘We are already old, it doesn’t matter to us anymore.’

In China, the fall of the wall was replaced by a web of informers, the ring of tank steel, and the great fire-wall of China. They too must be broken down, brick by brick. As long as we can demonstrate a better way forward, forged by tolerance, the sovereignty of the individual and mutual respect. We will fan the ghosts of Tiananmen, whispers of dissent in the wind, until the force rages a gale against the Communist state.

British Liberals believe that there is a three party political system in the UK. We have to by necessity, as we’re the third largest party.

The problem is that that a three party system nationally is alien to in practice to the British psique. The recent history of the UK, and the way our politics is done is all about two opposite views going toe to toe, much like the American system. The media runs on the basis of proposition and opposition, the narrative of big business versus the workers used to cover the whole of British society, even the parliamentary chamber promotes the us versus them mentality, with two opposite benches howling and waving paper at each other.

Whilst I believe in three party politics, however, I recognise that it’s only ever a short term thing; because of the wider aspects of the two party mentality.

Three party political conditions has existed in the UK twice before in the last century, first with the rise of the Labour Party and the decline of the Liberal parties in the 1920’s and 30’s, and second in the early 80’s with the rise of the SDP-Liberal Alliance. Both were marked by social changes, and ended with the reassertion of two dominant party’s, first Labour and the Conservatives, and the second time with New Labour and the Conservatives.

I draw the distinction between old and new Labour for a reason…

You see a third party rises because one of the two dominant ideologies becomes irrelevant to British society, the Liberal party of old died because its political narrative became irrelevant, the second conflict in the 1980’s arose because ‘Old’ Labour became so out of touch it was necessary to detox the brand and create New Labour.

This period of multi party politics however erupted around 2002 because of discontent with both mainstream parties, it was hoped by the Liberal Democrats before the rise of Cameron, and his repositioning of the Conservative party that it would be the Tories who were replaced, but now it is the death knells of New Labour in government which provides the opportunity for Liberals to capitalise before Labour adapts and survives.

This situation existed in the last period, in the 80’s, the rise of the Lib Dem’s forbearers in the alliance trying to supplant old Labour. The situation reached a head when Labour was able to hang on by 1% in the 1983 General election and, because of the system, remained relevant by taking 10 times the seats in parliament, killing any momentum behind the Alliance permanently. Labour adapted by changing it’s narrative to New Labour under Blair, in a way that the Liberals of the 30’s utterly failed, and so the party survived.

The difference between then and now, is that Labour are now ideologically bankrupt. It can’t go back to Old Labour; New Labour is discredited, forget the wars, forget the fees, forget the attack on civil liberties: New Labour was founded on economic competence mixed with social justice, a party with heart and a head. However it’s heart has lead to the greatest inequality gap, and least social mobility in 100 years, and it’s head has lead us into, Gordon Browns words, a depression.

The Liberals are no longer hamstrung in the country any more either. The party has a decent base, no longer is it a party of the Celtic fringe running one or two councils, Liberal Democrats now have a sizeable number of national seats, a much improved national operation, have experience of government in Wales and Scotland and have as many local councillors and run more local councils (including coalitions) than Labour.

If Labour were to collapse at the next general election, conceivable as the economic situation gets worse, and with the growing public anger at Gordon Brown, it is likely that the Lib Dems will pick up the vast majority of those votes – the Conservatives have hit a ceiling at 40%, and the only other mainstream party hard core labour supports would even consider supporting are the Liberals.

In that sort of situation it is conceivable that the Liberal Democrats could overtake Labour, in national share of the vote, perhaps even in seats. Going from government to third party is unheard of in the UK, of course, but at 28% of national support, with 15 months till an election and a perfect storm of economic armageddon, it is in these circumstances, that some parties die, and others thrive.